Since 2010, every NFL game has started with a coin flip. The result is a 50/50 proposition — the coin has no memory, no preferences, no favorite team. And yet across 10,045 opening tosses in this dataset, real differences emerge between franchises. The range runs from 54% (Los Angeles Chargers) down to 45% (Washington Commanders) — a 9-point spread that is almost entirely explainable by random variation, but is entirely real data.

Only opening (regular) coin tosses are counted per game. Overtime tosses are excluded to avoid double-counting games that go to OT and to isolate the decision coaches actually control at kickoff.

All 32 Teams — Ranked by Coin Toss Win Rate

All-time, since 2010. Opening tosses only.

Opening coin tosses only · Regular season & postseason · Since 2010

Rank	Team	Win %	W–L	Tosses
1	Los Angeles Chargers	54%	99–83	182
2	Green Bay Packers	53%	180–160	340
3	Philadelphia Eagles	53%	178–156	334
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	53%	178–156	334
5	Buffalo Bills	53%	175–157	332
6	Jacksonville Jaguars	53%	170–153	323
7	Kansas City Chiefs	52%	180–163	343
8	Chicago Bears	52%	170–154	324
9	New York Giants	52%	167–157	324
10	Miami Dolphins	52%	165–155	320
11	Los Angeles Rams	52%	111–101	212
12	Arizona Cardinals	51%	165–156	321
13	Seattle Seahawks	50%	170–168	338
14	Baltimore Ravens	50%	168–168	336
15	Denver Broncos	50%	164–166	330
16	Atlanta Falcons	50%	163–163	326
17	Carolina Panthers	50%	162–162	324
18	Detroit Lions	49%	160–164	324
19	Minnesota Vikings	49%	159–166	325
20	New York Jets	49%	158–162	320
21	Cleveland Browns	49%	157–163	320
22	Las Vegas Raiders	49%	58–60	118
23	New England Patriots	48%	166–178	344
24	San Francisco 49ers	48%	161–177	338
25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	48%	156–170	326
26	Tennessee Titans	48%	156–167	323
27	Indianapolis Colts	48%	155–171	326
28	Cincinnati Bengals	47%	155–173	328
29	Houston Texans	47%	155–177	332
30	Dallas Cowboys	47%	154–174	328
31	New Orleans Saints	46%	152–176	328
32	Washington Commanders	45%	145–177	322

The Five Luckiest Teams

These franchises have won the coin toss more often than not since 2010. With sample sizes ranging from roughly 150–300 tosses, deviations above 53% start to look non-trivial — even if the true probability is still 50%.

• 1.Los Angeles Chargers — 54% (99W–83L across 182 tosses). Defer rate when winning: 72%.
• 2.Green Bay Packers — 53% (180W–160L across 340 tosses). Defer rate when winning: 68%.
• 3.Philadelphia Eagles — 53% (178W–156L across 334 tosses). Defer rate when winning: 66%.
• 4.Pittsburgh Steelers — 53% (178W–156L across 334 tosses). Defer rate when winning: 56%.
• 5.Buffalo Bills — 53% (175W–157L across 332 tosses). Defer rate when winning: 87%.

The Five Unluckiest Teams

On the other end — franchises whose coin toss luck has run cold. If you believe in regression to the mean (you should), these teams are statistically "due." Though of course the coin doesn't know that.

• 32.Washington Commanders — 45% (145W–177L across 322 tosses).
• 31.New Orleans Saints — 46% (152W–176L across 328 tosses).
• 30.Dallas Cowboys — 47% (154W–174L across 328 tosses).
• 29.Houston Texans — 47% (155W–177L across 332 tosses).
• 28.Cincinnati Bengals — 47% (155W–173L across 328 tosses).

How to Read These Numbers

The coin toss is a Bernoulli trial with p = 0.5. After ~200 tosses — roughly what each team accumulates over a decade — the standard deviation of the observed win rate is about 3.5 percentage points. That means a team sitting at 53–54% is well within normal variance. A team sitting at 56%+ is starting to be statistically unusual, but still likely luck over a 15-year span.

What these rankings are not: predictive. Last season's coin toss luck has no bearing on this season's results. There is no "hot hand" in coin flips. The rankings are a historical record, nothing more — but they are a complete and accurate one, updated after every game.

What is predictive: what a team does once they win the toss. The decision to defer or receive reflects actual strategy, and some franchises are far more consistent about it than others. The defer rate column in the table above captures that.